

Startup health plans continue to grow in influence, now sharing 1.3% of the market, up from 0.9% last year. This growth was led largely by Bright Health and Devoted Health, which made up two-thirds of growth in the cohort.Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE), a high-value integrated product serving similar populations to SNP, saw steady enrollment growth of 5% in 2022 on 6% CAGR since 2019. Special Needs Plan (SNP) enrollment continues to grow quickly, up 20% this year and 16% CAGR since 2019. SNP products now enroll 4.5 million lives, representing more than 16% of all Medicare Advantage lives, and are seeing enrollment consolidate among top plans.Humana and Kaiser saw the largest share contractions at 0.37% and 0.33% share points, respectively, though both posted enrollment gains. United and Centene were the for-profit plans that gained the most share last year, adding 0.48% and 0.87% share points, respectively. This year, as in years past, approximately one-third of all new enrollees went to United.Even in their home states, Blues plans continue to cede share to other plans, with share declining from 15.4% to 13.9% since 2019.

1This year, nonprofit and Blues plans shrunk to 18.2% and 10.0% of the market, respectively, while for-profit plans now represent 71.8% of all beneficiaries. Nonprofit and Blue-branded nonprofit health plans (referred to as “Blues” in this report) continue to cede share to for-profit health plans.Our analyses continue to suggest that the market will see 50% Medicare Advantage penetration by 2025. The march toward 50% continues at a rapid clip, with 11 of the 50 states having half or more of their eligible beneficiaries in Medicare Advantage products. While mostly symbolic, this is an important benchmark for the industry and one that has been anticipated for many years.The market for Medicare Advantage is now 45% of all Medicare enrollment, up from 42% last year and 37% in 2019. The Medicare Advantage market added +2.3 million lives at the expense of 1.3 million Original Medicare lives. This contraction in Original Medicare enrollment and shift to Medicare Advantage is the highest it has ever been.Medicare overall enrollment continues to grow, up +1 million this year. But growth has slowed compared to years past, much of which is likely attributable to COVID-19 deaths among the 65+ population, which were 300,000 per year in 20.Some trends persist from our report last year, and others are new twists in the evolving market.

With this growth, we continue to see a shifting competitive landscape for health plans that administer these products. These results reflect the strong value proposition of Medicare Advantage products and the industry’s sustained push to create new value for its consumers.

This marks a +3% point improvement in penetration over 2021 and a total program enrollment growth of +9%. The program now boasts 28 million participants, which represent 45% of all Medicare beneficiaries. 2022 was another banner year for Medicare Advantage.
